President Trump’s proposal to issue $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks to Americans by mid-2026 faces new scrutiny as an independent analysis finds the plan could cost approximately $450 billion—wiping out a full year’s tariff revenue and raising questions about its economic impact. The Yale Budget Lab released findings Monday night showing the checks would offer only a modest boost in growth and jobs, while requiring Congressional approval that remains far from certain.
Price Tag and Economic Impact
The Yale study estimates that if every individual earning less than $100,000 annually received a $2,000 check, the total cost would be $450 billion, easily exceeding annual tariff collections, which are projected at $420 billion in fiscal year 2026. While Trump claims the disbursements—set to begin ahead of the decisive 2026 midterm elections—would return tariff revenue “directly to the people,” budget analysts warn the plan would crowd out promises to use tariffs for paying down the national debt or supporting U.S. farmers.
Growth, Jobs, and Inflation
According to Yale’s projections, the checks would boost U.S. GDP by just 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and increase employment by 0.15 percentage points—benefits that fade quickly in later years. Economists note the checks may cause a small uptick in inflation, but less than pandemic-era stimulus, easing concerns about runaway price surges. The affordability crisis facing many households is a key political motivator for the proposal, as the administration pushes for short-term relief before the midterms.
Roadblocks and Political Outlook
Despite Trump’s Oval Office promise that checks would “begin going out” by mid-2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned the plan cannot proceed without Congressional authorization—a process made more complex by competing legislative priorities and an awaited Supreme Court decision on the broader tariff program. As Congress gears up for a critical vote on the release of the Epstein files, the future of the proposed “tariff dividend” remains highly uncertain.