Public opinion polls reveal President Donald Trump is taking a political hit over the Epstein files controversy, particularly among suburban women and even within his own Republican base. After days of resistance, Trump reversed course late Sunday and urged House Republicans to vote to release the files, claiming he has “nothing to hide” and calling the issue a “Democrat hoax”—but polling data suggests the damage to his approval ratings may already be significant.
Polling Shows Vulnerability on Epstein Issue
CNN political analyst Harry Enten called the Epstein investigation Trump’s “worst issue by far” among conservatives, citing data showing that only 40 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the files, while 36 percent disapprove. Among all Americans, disapproval stands at 63 percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll. More concerning for Trump: polling from the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that 47 percent of 2024 Trump voters believe he is mishandling the Epstein situation, and 26 percent of those voters say they would reconsider their support if the election were held again.
Suburban Moms and Trump’s Base Divide
Newsweek’s analysis highlights that suburban women—a key demographic Trump needs for 2026 and 2028—are especially skeptical of his Epstein explanations. The controversy has exposed rare daylight between Trump and his MAGA loyalists, with even staunch ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly criticizing his reaction as a “miscalculation.” Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed the House will vote Tuesday on a bipartisan bill forcing release of Justice Department documents, with co-sponsors predicting more than 40 Republicans will vote in favor.
Political Fallout and Election Impact
While Trump’s overall approval rating has held steady at 46 percent, experts warn that erosion among his base—even if small—could prove costly in close races during the midterms. Trump’s efforts to pivot by ordering DOJ investigations into prominent Democrats’ Epstein ties may not be enough to satisfy voters who believe transparency is paramount. With three-quarters of Americans supporting full release of the files, the political pressure on Trump continues to mount.