Bitcoin appears to have completed its recent sell-off, and a year-end rally is “still in play,” according to Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick. After dropping more than 30% in its third major pullback since 2024, metrics tracked by analysts—including capitulation signals and MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value—now show signs of seller exhaustion and market bottoming.
Sell-Off Exhaustion and Technical Signals
Kendrick notes that several on-chain and sentiment indicators have “collapsed to zero,” which historically signals the end of sharp corrections. Analyst teams at Bitfinex echo this view, saying that realized losses for short-term holders have slowed and technical markers suggest a local bottom is forming. According to Kendrick, “A rally into year-end is my base case,” given the scale and speed of the correction.
Outlook for Year-End Rally
This scenario aligns with recent betting trends and forecasts from other major banks—including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase —that see Bitcoin potentially rebounding above $120,000 and even reaching as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025, provided consistent ETF inflows and supportive macroeconomic conditions persist. While price volatility and headline risks remain, many investors believe the worst of the sell-off is behind us, and the next phase could be sharply upward as market fundamentals recover.